According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is expected to begin its retreat from northwest India around September 25. Normally, the monsoon season starts over Kerala on June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. The withdrawal process begins in northwest India around September 17 and completes by October 15.
In the coming days, reduced rainfall is anticipated in northwest and adjoining west-central India. Favorable conditions are emerging for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from parts of west Rajasthan by September 25.
The monsoon’s retreat from northwest India signifies the start of its departure from the entire Indian subcontinent. Any delay in the monsoon’s retreat can affect agricultural production, especially in northwest India, where monsoon rainfall is vital for Rabi crop production.
So far this monsoon season, India has received 780.3 mm of rainfall, slightly below the normal of 832.4 mm. Rainfall between 94% and 106% of the long-period average (LPA) is considered normal. Typically, India receives an average of 870 mm of precipitation during the four-month monsoon season from June to September.
During a pre-monsoon briefing, the IMD had forecasted a standard monsoon for India, albeit leaning toward the lower end of the normal range. It had also cautioned that El Nino conditions, associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, might influence the latter half of the southwest monsoon.
India experienced a rainfall deficit in June but saw excessive precipitation in July due to western disturbances and a favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which increases convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
August 2023 was the driest month since 1901 and the hottest ever recorded in India, attributed to the strengthening of El Nino conditions. Nonetheless, September delivered an abundance of rainfall due to the presence of multiple low-pressure systems and the positive phase of the MJO.
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